Software Drags Stocks. After Hours Oil Move Lower.
Market Wrap
Potential ceasefire sends oil lower and equities higher just after the close.
IGV (software) lower by -4.2% as AI concerns re-emerge.
Yields continue higher after bad Treasury auction
A choppy day that ended with SPX giving up some of yesterday’s gains. The intraday action was largely driven by Iran headlines, but also featured higher yields on both oil and a weak a Treasury auction, plus pressure on the tech sector via software stocks getting hit after the latest AI threat.
Large moves after hours on an Israeli report of a potential 30 day cease-fire.
On the day: SPX -0.4%, QQQ -0.8% and IWM +0.5%
Regular Session: Oil moved higher to $92, and still seems likely to act as ceiling on equity rallies until theirs light at the end of the tunnel on Iran. Headlines around potential progress in the conflict are increasingly being discounted, as traders wait for confirmation of cease-fire progress.
The US10YY spiked as high as 4.43% following a soft treasury auction but did ease slightly into the close, now 4.39%.
The VIX saw an early spike to 28 before settling back to 27.
DXY was higher alongside oil back to 99.40, while Gold stabilized near 4400 after an extremely volatile couple of days.
Sector-wise, weakness in software names was the main story. Materials and Energy were the main areas of strength. Small caps were higher despite higher yields.
After Hours: Oil is sharply lower and equity futures higher following a report from Israel that a 30 day cease-fire may be announced. SPY is +0.7% after hours, with USO -3%.
Today’s MRKT Call: Guy and Dan on the weakness in software names, an update on energy names, where does Gold go from here and more.
Listen to the MRKT MATRIX summary of today’s top stories:
Articles Mentioned:
S&P 500 falls, giving back chunk of Monday’s rally as oil prices rebound, Iran war continues (CNBC)
Jamie Dimon says Iran war makes Middle East peace prospects better in the long term (CNBC)
Dimon warns on AI job losses, calls for government-business incentives (CNBC)
Big Banks Are Playing Both Sides of the Private-Credit Meltdown (WSJ)
Apollo caps investor withdrawals from flagship private credit fund (FT)
Apple Plans AI Reboot With Siri App, New Look and ‘Ask Siri’ Button in iOS 27 (Bloomberg)
Meta Names New Leader of Push to Adopt AI Throughout Its Workforce (WSJ)
US must suspend Nvidia AI chip exports to China, senators say (FT)
OpenAI Set to Raise About $10 Billion From MGX, Coatue, Thrive (Bloomberg)
SoftBank tests its own borrowing limits with $30bn bet on OpenAI (FT)
Circle heads for it worst day on record as proposed law could limit stablecoin yield (CNBC)
What’s next?
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the macro and earnings calendar is light, so focus will remain on Iran developments and oil prices. That said, today was a reminder that there are still other market narratives in play. The renewed weakness in software names after a recent bounce, highlights that even once the Iran situation resolves, markets will still have to grapple with significant uncertainty around AI disruption. Today’s weakness was largely attributed to the new Anthropic release.
IGV has now retraced roughly half of its recent bounce and is back to more than -30% below its highs from the Fall. AI disruption remains a defining theme for 2026, and today was a reminder that even with oil and geopolitics dominating headlines, that story continues to be what matters longer term.
For tomorrow, SPX short-dated volatility has eased slightly, with options pricing in roughly a 0.9% move on the day.
Wednesday, March 24th
Fed Speak - Miran, Barr
SPX Expected Move: 0.9%
Watch Today’s MRKT Call: The Tech Slide Continues, When Will It Stop?
Guy and Dan on the market’s attempt at a bounce. The recent action in energy names with buybacks being punished. Software vs Chips and the risk to legacy software with white collar layoffs. What’s going on in yields, and when does it begin to become a problem for equities? Was yesterday the bottom in gold for now? Are the banks bottoming?
Analysis - SPX, XLE, CVX, XOM, VLO, OIH, MSFT, NVDA, META, US10YY, TLT, WMT, QQQ, SPY, CRCL
Your Questions
Eric - How strong is the support for QQQ and SPY here?
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